Chocolate Elections

By Jordan Morris

Recently it was announced the new leader of Ukraine would be billionaire chocolatier and media mogul Petro Poroshenko. The ‘Chocolate King’ outperformed his closest opponent, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, by taking close to 55% of the national vote, enough to win the election outright. Poroshenko is best known as being the CEO of Roshen Confectionery Corporation who takes in close to $1 billion per year and employs upwards of 10,000 people. Aside from his business endeavors, Poroshenko is a well-entrenched politician who has served the Ukrainian government as an MP, worked as a foreign minister, and was the chairman of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council. While Poroshenko was visibly excited about winning the election, the uncertain future of Ukraine lingered in the background of the celebrations.

The elections themselves were marred by nearly 75% of polling stations being closed in the pro-Russian controlled eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. On Monday, just a day after the elections, Donetsk Airport turned into the site of the bloodiest and most recent skirmish between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatist forces. Ukraine deployed helicopters to fight off the rebel’s attempts to take the country’s second largest airport. Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s interior minister, claimed that the action was a comprehensives success with the enemy suffering heavy losses. Alexander Lukyanchenko, self-appointed mayor of Donetsk, reported the total number of dead was around 40, including two civilians. There was no certainty as to the political affiliation of the other 38 killed but the enthusiasm of the Ukrainian government suggests losses were heavily pro-separatist. 

Poroshenko believes government victories like this define the future of the conflict. The president elect has been quoted expressing his intentions to act swiftly and strongly against ‘terrorists’ and pro-Russian separatists. He hopes for peaceful negotiations but presents an aggressive timeframe that, “cannot and should not last two or three months, It should and will last hours." 

Poroshenko’s words are exemplified by Ukraine’s increasing willingness to deploy more frequent and aggressive anti-terrorist tactics against separatist forces. Eastern militants are starting to feel the pressure not only from Kiev, but also from Moscow, who claims they will respect the outcome of the elections and work with the new Ukrainian president to restore order in the region. Putin claims he has been moving his 40,000 strong force away from the Ukrainian border. As Russia takes its time retreating from the border, it becomes clear to rebels they are losing a confidant and supporter in the Kremlin, and possibly their hopes of independence or Russian inclusion. 

There are some good signs for ethnic Russians in the east, however. Poroshenko has conceded the fact that despite his pro-EU stance, Ukraine will always be linked to Russia and will continue to work with them in a constructive manner. CNN quotes Poroshenko during an address to his supporters regarding all people from Ukraine as having, ‘…the right to speak any language they want. The right to elect the leaders they want. The right for the decentralization of power.’ This will surely upset some of those who participated in the Maiden protests, but it is a political reality that the ‘chocolate king’ is prepared to work within. Poroshenko realizes that in his pursuit of European inclusion, which has now come to be defined through membership in the European Union, Ukraine will always have interests anchored in their relationship with Russia. 

Poroshenko appears to have a realistic view of Ukraine’s future and their precarious relationship between Russia and the West. He has been decisive in his words and takes moderate stance that is necessary for progress. Despite the fact that Poroshenko may be an able leader, the people are eager to just move on. When one voter was asked who she was going to vote for, she noted her support for Poroshenko simply because he was the frontrunner and she wished for the ‘race to be settled as soon as possible’. 

These elections are step forward in restoring normality in the region but there are some things that must be considered for the future of the country. First, while Russia claims they will work with the new government, Moscow still insists there be no drastic action taken against Russian nationals and will not tolerate inappropriate use of force against ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. Secondly, why would people who have just overthrown an extremely rich oligarch in Viktor Yanukovych be so eager to elect anothe leader who is regularly referred to as an oligarch and has aquired personal wealth rivaling that of the former President? What will keep Poroshenko from reaching the same level of corruption as Yanukovych did, especially considering that Ukrainian politics still struggles with corruption issues? Does Ukraine really feel this new president has their best interests in mind with his pro-EU policies and realist view about relations with Russia, or do they simply think Poroshenko is a ‘Hollywood ending’ to their problems? Just like the Bucket family, the Ukrainian people are exhausted and disillusioned. Hopefully the ‘Chocolate King’ is their golden ticket.

Utility of the State: Life on the Border

By Jordan Morris

Territorial Evolution of Ukraine

Life in Southern and Eastern Ukraine has been recently characterized by rhetoric, uncertainty, and violence. In the face of all of this tumult, the very idea of representation and democracy that ousted Viktor Yanukovych in February of 2013 has been forgotten by international politicians and media outlets. Most reports about the recent annexation of the Crimean peninsula by the Russian Federation have been filled with fear mongering about Putin’s ambition of reuniting the former Soviet states rather than an in-depth exploration of what the people of the region truly want. Despite the fact that Putin is accused of sending in security forces with no insignia and what some would say holding elections ‘at gunpoint’ to forward the referendum that declared the regions wish to join Russia, it appears there was no real local opposition to Russian presence in the first place.

This is the question that has been painfully absent from the focus of leaders and media; ‘Is life in eastern and southern Ukraine generally better than it would be in if those regions were Russia’? The evidence paints a statistical picture that suggests that the lives of people in eastern Ukraine may be better in Russia, and maybe this suggests the willingness of people to fight for Russian inclusion. As of 2012 Russia’s GNI per capita was $12,700 compared to Ukraine’s $3,500. According to The World Bank, Russia also experiences longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality rate in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Statistics can be misleading but they do serve a purpose. These numbers, combined with the willingness of the people in eastern Ukrainian cities to put their lives at stake, portrays a narrative that suggests the people desire Russian inclusion. Issues of state sovereignty are always concerning, and the slippery slope fallacy about Russia’s annexation and what that means for the rest of the world are not entirely false because Putin is notorious for igniting Soviet sentiment, but in all of this we miss a lot of what is really going on. We forget that people’s livelihoods are at stake. Kofi Annan’s 'two sovereignties,' the idea that not only states but individuals have sovereignty as well, is quickly becoming the norm in international politics and these norms should apply to all people, no matter who their loyalty lies with. In the upcoming elections it is unlikely that eastern Ukraine will participate, let alone recognize the new president as their leader.

It is true that Russia has significant stake in eastern Ukraine with a significant military presence in Sevastopol and the gas fields that line the eastern third of Ukraine. To examine the true importance of this issue, the people, we must remove the political veil of economic and military interests that Russia may have in the region. There are still people living above those gas lines and around those military bases. There is life beyond geopolitical conflict in eastern and southern Ukraine. The people there similar to people everywhere who want what they would consider to be the best possible life.

Finally, consider this. Russia’s geopolitical and economic enterprise, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), only has two other members in it, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This union is no different than NAFTA, the TPP, NATO or the EU in its aims, but still is held under suspicion by the West as being an appendage of Russian expansionism. Even though it is claimed that Russia is exerting unfair influence over eastern Ukraine, and will ‘take a mile if they are given an inch,’ the leaders of Kazakhstan and Belarus are vocal about their wish to let the EEU develop at an agreeable pace, with assurance that all policies made within it are mutually respected and beneficial.

We cannot say whether life will be better as part of Russia or Ukraine for those who live in the conflict zone, but it is safe to suggest life will largely remain the same, if not improve. If it is the will of the people to join Russia, the state they ethnically identify with, let them. 

Ukraine Protests

By Nathaniel Fritz

Photo: KyivPost

The Washington Post has shared a live video feed of an ongoing crackdown on protesters in Independence Square in Kiev. Watching the events Tuesday night, there were a large number of fireworks going off, fires burning, and Molotov cocktails being thrown. The police appeared to be holding at the edge of the square; likely because of the large number of protesters in the square and the large fires separating the two groups. The police were on the outer edges but can be seen being bombarded with rocks, Molotov cocktails, and fireworks. Police forces responded in kind with the use of fire hoses to suppress the fires and spray the protesters while the temperatures remained below freezing.

Kyiv Post has a count of nine dead and over one hundred injured from the day's clashes. After the fighting earlier in the day the government called for protesters to leave Independence Square by 6 PM; the protesters choosing to remain in the square has prompted tonight's standoff. The protesters had marched on Parliament in order to show support for a vote to reduce the President's powers. At the heart of these protests is the way President Viktor Yanukovych has handled an integration pact with the European Union; he is seen as instead favoring closer integration with Russia. Ukrainian's are divided on this issue as well. At present we can only hope that events in Ukraine see no more bloodshed and that the government and protesters can find a positive resolution to the situation without more violence.

[Editor update: Footage of Ukrainian police firing on protesters. Warning: graphic violence.]